摘要
基于国内溃坝生命损失资料,结合了前人研究结果,调整了溃坝风险人口死亡率的影响因素,并根据模糊物元分析法获得的溃坝风险人口死亡率,提出了风险人口死亡率修正系数,构建了溃坝生命损失模糊预测模型。实例结果表明,该模型预测精度较高,实用性较强。
Based on the statistical data of loss of life and previous research achievements, the influencing factors of death rate of population caused by risk of dam break are regulated. According to fuzzy matter-element analysis, a new prediction model of loss of life is put forward with introduce of correction factor. The results of instance show that the proposed model has high precision and good practicability.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2011年第8期46-49,45,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51079046
50909041
50809025
50879024)
河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项基金资助项目(2009586012
2009586912
2010585212)
关键词
模糊物元分析
溃坝
生命损失
AHP法
预测模型
fuzzy matter-element analysis
dam break
loss of life
AHP
prediction model
