河南生产者服务业与制造业协同发展研究——基于VAR模型系统分析

The Joint Development between the Producer Services Industry and the Manufacturing Industry in Henan Province:A Systematic Analysis Based on VAR Model

后危机时代,生产者服务业的率先复苏彰显出生产者服务业与制造业协同发展的可能性与必要性。运用协整方法及向量自回归模型来实证分析河南生产者服务业与制造业之间的协同发展关系。结果表明,二者之间仅存在较弱的协同发展效应。原因主要在于河南的制造业结构层次低,生产者服务业布局分散,面临的市场环境较差等。因此,建议政府从优化产业结构、推进集聚区建设、完善市场环境以及加强科技创新等方面做出努力。

In the post-crisis era, the producer services recover firstly, highlights the possibility and necessity of the joint development between the producer services and manufacturing industries. By using the cointegration analysis and vector autoregressive model, this paper analyzes the joint development between the producer services and the manufacturing industries in Henan Province. The results show that there is only a weaken effect between them. That is because of the lower level of manufacturing structure, the scattered layout of producer services, and the poorer market environment. Therefore, we propose that the local governments should optimize the industrial structure, promote the industrial clustering zone, improve the market environment, and strengthen scientific and technologies innovation.