摘要
这篇论文阐述了在环境影响评价(EIA)和发展方面为确定、评估和预测环境变化而重新进行景观分析的必要性。开始应把重点放在景观上,而不要集中在个别系统或过程上,这样做可以扩大研究范围,以不同的时空角度评价其变化,然后再集中研究各个特定地区或发展项目的关键问题。可将这种途径看作是一个过程而不是一种方法,它不光要求具有学科间的评价能力,还要求具有学科内的数据收集和评价的能力。这种科学能力、当地知识及区域环境研究经验的综合可以用来扩大评价的视角,提高预测能力。在两个坦桑尼亚的研究实例中,具体阐述了这种途径的应用。南部高地研究源自对建议的两个水力发电项目进行的可行性环境影响评价,而Babati研究是源自以前的土地管理方面的阶段性研究。这些研究都不得不从更广阔的视角来进行。在这两个例子中,他们的负责机构认为定义环境基线以评价土地利用和与环境变化有关的项目是非常必要的。然而,从我们的研究中得出的一个结论是:不存在这种环境方面的基线,而只有一种适合不同时空的扩展的基线,依据它,才能全面理解和预测环境变化及有关的社会变化。因此这种研究可以被看作是一种贡献——对于环境变化新的理解的贡献,而这种理解对战略性的环境影响评价和长期的自然资源利用规划来讲是必要的。
This paper illustrates the need for a revival and renewal of landscape analysis in order to identify, evaluate and predict environmental change in environmental impact assessment (EIA) and development perspectives. An initial focus on the landscape, rather than on individual systems or processes, makes it possible to widen the scope of study, to assess change in different temporal and spatial perspectives and thereafter to converge on key issues of relevance for specific areas or development projects. This approach can be seen as a process rather than a method, which calls for intradisciplinary competence in data collection and evaluation as well as an interdisciplinary assessment capability. A combination of such scientific competence, local knowledge, and experiences of the local environment is used to widen the assessment perspectives and the prediction competence. The approach is illustrated by its application in two Tanzanian studies. The Southern Highland study emerged from two feasibility environmental impact assessments (ElAs) of proposed hydropower projects whilst the Babati study was initiated as a result of previous sectoral research on land management, which had to be analyzed in broader perspectives. In both cases, a need to define environmental baselines to assess land use and project related environmental change had been defined by different donor agencies. One conclusion from our study is, however, that there is no such thing as an environmental baseline, rather a baseline that has to be extended in different temporal and spatial perspectives to fully understand and predict environmental and related social change. This study can therefore be seen as a contribution to a new understanding of environmental change that is required for strategic environmental impact assessments and long-term natural resource-use planning.
