基于NGM(1,1,k)模型的农产品产量预测方法

Farm Productivity Prediction Method Using the NGM(1,1,k) Model

农业作为基础性产业为国民经济和社会发展提供了必要的基础性物质,而农业中的粮食生产则是基础中的基础.基于NGM(1,1,k)模型,提出了一种农产品产量预测方法.分析了原NGM(1,1,k)模型中参数设置不足的缺陷,借鉴非齐次指数序列的灰色预测模型的建模特点,构建了一种新的NGM(1,1,k)模型,灰微分方程的建立使得模型满足无偏性.应用实例结果显示了新NGM(1,1,k)模型的有效性和适用性.

Agriculture is the fundamental industry to national economic and social development,and it provides the necessary basic material to national economic and social development.A farm productivity prediction method based on the NGM（1,1,k） model was proposed in this work.The disadvantage of original NGM（1,1,k） was analyzed,and an improved NGM（1,1,k） was proposed based on the grey forecasting model of Nonhomogeneous index series.The differential equation model meets the unbiased of forecasting model.The experimental results suggest that this new NGM（1,1,k） is feasible,correct and valid.