我国经济增长对电力消费的阈值效应分析

The Threshold Effect of China's Economic Growth on Electricity Consumption

本文运用阈值协整模型揭示了我国电力消费与经济增长、产业结构、电力使用效率、电力价格因经济周期性波动而具有的长期非线性关系,主要结论为:(1)我国经济增长对电力消费的阈值效应的机制转移发生在人均GDP增长率等于7.479%和9.184%处;(2)整个样本期间,经济增长显著推动了电力消费增长,电力使用效率的提高则是抑制电力消费增长的主要因素,以"退二进三"为主导的产业结构调整表现出了对电力消费的"节电红利"现象,但在不同的经济增长阶段其效应值存在显著差异;(3)当经济增长处于7.479～9.184%的适度增长区间时,产业结构的调整和优化具有最大的"节电红利"效应;(4)电价的扭曲削弱了价格机制对电力消费的引导和配置作用。

This paper identifies a threshold cointegration relation among electricity consumption（EL） and economic growth（GROWTH）,industry structure（INS）,electricity efficiency（EF） and electricity price（P）.The main conclusions are：（1） GROWTH has nonlinear effect on EL when the per capita GDP growth is 7.479% and 9.184%;（2） during the whole sample period,GROWTH produce positive effects on EL,EF and INS produce negative effects,but in different regimes,its estimates values are different;（3） when GROWTH is between 7.479% and 9.184%,that is to say the economic growth is reasonably,then the optimization and upgrade of industrial structure has biggest＂structure bonus＂on EL;（4） price distortions weaken the pricing mechanism which can guide and configure on electricity consumption.