摘要
基于1952—2009年的统计数据,运用自回归移动平均模型和多项式分布滞后模型对中国"十二五"时期的国内生产总值和水利投资额进行预测。实证结果表明:多项式分布滞后模型的预测效果比仅考虑当期经济发展水平对水利投资的影响所建立的传统线性预测模型更为理想;在此基础上,运用自回归移动平均模型可预测出中国"十二五"时期的水利投资额。
On the basis of the statistic data between 1952 and 2009,this paper applies ARIMA and PDL to forecast the gross domestic products and water investment between 2011~2015 in ＂the twelfth five＂ period.The results show that the forecasting effect of PDL model is better than traditional linear forecast model which only considers the economic level of the current period.Additionally,this paper calculates the quota of water investment in ＂the twelfth five＂ period.
出处
《经济与管理》
CSSCI
2011年第8期5-10,共6页
Economy and Management
