广东沿海地区风暴潮易损性评估

A Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment for Coastal Guangdong

从系统学角度出发,对广东省沿海地区(阳江―汕尾岸段)风暴潮灾害易损性因子进行综合分析,提出从社会经济、土地利用、生态环境、滨海构造物和承灾能力5个方面对风暴潮承灾体进行易损性评估,建立广东省沿海地区风暴潮易损性评价指标体系。依托国际通用的海岸易损性评估模式并对其进行改进,建立与广东省沿海地区相适应的风暴潮易损性评价模型,运用ArcGIS绘制广东沿海地区(阳江―汕尾岸段)风暴潮易损程度分区图。评估结果表明:珠海市、广州番禺区和台山市风暴潮易损程度最高,中山市、东莞市、惠阳市区和海丰县次之,江门市、汕尾市区、阳江市区和阳东县易损程度中等,深圳宝安区、开平市和恩平市易损程度较低,广州市区、佛山顺德区、深圳市区和深圳龙岗区易损程度最低。

A comprehensive analysis is conducted in this paper on the vulnerability factors to storm surge in the coastal area of Guangdong（the section from Yangjing to Shanwei） from the view of systematics.Five vulnerability assessment indicators of disaster-bearing bodies are put forward which are social economic index,land use index,eco-environmental index,coastal construction index and bearing-disaster capability index.A storm surge vulnerability assessment index system for coastal Guangdong is established.The internationally general coastal vulnerability assessment mode is improved to construct a vulnerability evolution model for the coastal area of Guangdong.By using ArcGIS,a vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the studied region is drawn.Evaluation results show that the vulnerability degree to storm surge in Zhuhai,Panyu and Taishan is the highest,that in Zhongshan,Dongguan,Huiyang and Haifeng the second,that in Jiangmen,Shanwei,Yangjiang and Yangdong the middle,that in Bao＇an,Kaiping and Enping the lower,and that in Guangzhou,Shunde,Shenzhen and Longgang the lowest.This study reveals the risk of storm surges in the coastal cities and that would be helpful in future to guide the land use of coastal cities and the prevention and mitigation of storm surge disasters.