江苏省专利产出与经济增长关系的实证研究--基于技术经济学的时间序列分析

Empirical Research between Patent Output and Economic Growth of Jiangsu Province Based on Time Series Analysis

基于技术经济学的理论模型,运用单位根检验,协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法,对江苏省专利产出与经济增长进行了实证研究,以1985—2010的江苏省统计年鉴为数据基础,发现两者存在长期均衡关系和格兰杰因果关系,并建立了动态互动的关系,研究结论可以为江苏省制定和实施"十二五"科技发展规划提供参考,也为其它省市地区依靠科技发展促进经济增长,提供宝贵的经验和明确的标杆。

Employing methods of ADF unit root test,co-integration analysis and Granger causal analysis of dynamics econometrics,and using Jiangsu province data of the patent output and economic growth of capital region in 1985-2009,the dynamic econometric relationship between the patent output and economic growth of capital Jiangsu region is analyzed.The results show that economic growth is the Granger causality of the patent output and the patent output promotes the economic growth effectively and a alternating feedback mechanism has not been set up.This study provides a reference for Jiangsu Province Twelfth Five-Year Plan.