摘要
利用中国气象局提供的483个气象站1961―2000年月降水数据以及ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式输出的1961―2050年月降水数据,分别计算其月SPI值,分析中国过去40年来及未来3种排放情景(A2:温室气体高排放情景;A1B:温室气体中排放情景;B1:温室气体低排放情景)下旱涝格局的演变;同时分析了8个水文站径流变化百分率与对应流域SPI平均值的相关关系。结果显示:过去40年来中国有一条由东北向西南延伸的干旱趋势带,A2情景下,这条干旱带将持续存在,A1B情景下,贯穿中国中部及南部沿海区域呈湿润化趋势,B1情景下,中国东部将出现"北涝南旱"的旱涝格局。研究认为:SPI指数与径流量变化百分率有较好的相关关系,可以对中国未来水资源的研究提供一定的参考。
With the monthly data of 483 weather stations during 1961-2000 and the precipition data derived from ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model for 1961-2050, the monthly SPI （Standard Precipitation Index） are caculated, and evolution of drought and flood pattern in last 40 years and that for three kinds of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios（A2：high emission scenario;A1B：medium emission scenario;B1：low emission scenario） are analyzed, as well as the correlation between the runoff percentage in 8 hydrologic stations and corresponding SPI. The results show that：there was a drought trend zone which extended from northeast to southwest in the past 40 years in China, Under scenario A2, this drought zone would still exist;Under scenario A1B, a wet zone would spread in middle part of China;Under scenario B1, flood might occur in northern part while drought in southern part in east China. It is concluded that there is a good correlation between SPI and the percentage of runoff change.
出处
《热带地理》
北大核心
2011年第3期237-242,共6页
Tropical Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(NSFC41001021)
山东省水资源与水环境重点实验室开放基金项目(WRISD0901)
