经济平稳增长下的湖南省能源消费量及碳排放量预测

Prediction on Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Based on Steady Economic Growth of Hunan Province

引用考虑了技术进步、劳动人口等因素构建的经济增长模型预测湖南省最优增长率,获得未来年份的GDP;根据拟合模型计算得到能源强度下降速率,从而预测出2008―2050年的能源强度和能源消费量。在此基础上,通过马尔科夫模型预测能源消费品种比例,并考虑未来年份能源品种结构变化,对预测的能源强度进行调整,计算各能源品种的排碳量,汇总求和后得到湖南省的碳排放趋势。结果显示:在当前技术进步速率下,湖南省在2035年达到能源消费高峰,2036年达到碳排放高峰,人均碳排放量在2034年达到峰值。

With economic growth modeling which considers technology improvement, labor force, etc., this paper predicts the optimal economic growth rate and the GDP of Hunan Province in future, as well as the energy intensity and energy consumption between 2008 and 2050 with present technology progress rate,which was reflected by energy efficiency improvement rate. Through Markov matrix,it also forecasts the industrial structure and energy consumption varieties. In consideration of the future industrial structure,the authors adjust the energy intensity and calculate carbon emission of different energy consumption varieties. Gathering all the data,the authors obtain the trend of carbon emission. The result shows that：in Hunan, the energy consumption will peak in 2035,while carbon emission and per capita carbon emission will peak in 2037 and 2034, respectively, under present technology progress rate.