三江平原桦川县近60年降水变化特征与旱涝分析

Analysis on Precipitation Characteristics and Drought-Flood in Huachuan County of Sanjiang Plain for Nearly 60 Years

笔者以三江平原桦川县为例,收集该县气象台自建站以来1967—2008年逐月降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、突变检验、小波分析和标准降水指数(SPI)法,分析了桦川县降水变化特征和旱涝发生规律。结果表明:桦川县降水与作物生长季同期,降水量年内分配极不均匀,年际之间变化较大,呈减少趋势。春旱、夏秋涝较为严重,旱涝灾害在时空上普遍性、季节性、连续性、阶段性特点明显。在此基础上,提出预防旱涝灾害的建议,以期为当地农业生产服务提供指导。

Droughts and floods are the main threats to the agricultural production,uneven distribution of precipitation is the important reason.Based on the precipitation records observed from the meteorological stations in Huachuan from 1967 to 2008,the characteristics of precipitation variation and regularity of drought and flood were analyzed with linear trend estimation method,mutation check,wavelet analysis and standard precipitation index（SPI）.The results indicated that the precipitation over the same period with the growing season,and the distribution of monthly precipitation was not even.The difference of yearly showed a great degree,showed significant decreasing trends.Spring drought,summer and autumn floods were more serious,obvious features of the performance of droughts and floods in universality,seasonal,continuity and stage etc.On this basis,recommendations for the prevention of droughts and floods were advised,in order to guide the local agricultural production.