摘要
降雨是影响农业生产的一个重要因素,如何预测降雨量以及所得结果对农业生产具有重要的指导意义。基于降雨量变化与资产价格变化的相似性,将资本资产定价模型(CAPM)的建模思想应用到降雨量的预测中,建立了降雨量的CAPM模型。用该模型预测的结果比较合理,而且计算方法简单、易于掌握。
Rainfall is an important factor in agricultural production and that how to predict the results of rainfall has important guiding significance for agricultural production. In this study, the author studied the similarity of changes in asset pricing and rainfall precipitation, and then established a rainfall＇s CAPM model to forecast rainfall. The results also showed the model was reasonable in rainfall forecasting, and its calculation was simple, and easy to compare.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第20期274-277,共4页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
吉林农业科技学院青年科研基金项目
关键词
降雨量
CAPM模型
预测
瞬时变化率
平均降雨量
rainfall
CAPM model
prediction
instantaneous rate of change
average rainfall
