近30年冀东地区气候变化对气候生产力的影响

The Effect of Climate Change on the Climatic Productivity of Jidong Area in the Nearly 30 Years

为了摸清全球气候变化背景下冀东地区年平均气温及年降水量变化情况,以及由此对作物气候生产力产生的影响和未来气候变化情景下作物气候生产力水平。笔者利用冀东地区11个观测站1977-2006年气象资料与统计资料,在分析年均气温和降水量变化的基础上,应用Thornth waite Memorial模型,计算气候生产力对年均气温和降水量变化的响应情况。结果表明：（1）该区气温增速为（显0.,4气1~候0.7生5）产℃力/1利0a,用年率降平水均量为波4动3.3减%少,呈,但提不高显的著趋;（势2;）（过3）去未3来0不年同间气气候候情生景产下力,＂总暖体湿呈型减＂少气趋候势将,使但气不明候生产力增加7%~20.8%,＂冷干型＂气候将使气候生产力降低7.1%~9.7%。综上可知：（1）年平均气温变化在山区、平原和沿海地区表现出很好的一致性,年降水量表现出非一致性;（2）本地区作物气候生产力随年平均气温和年降水量的增加而增加,单一的气温升高和降水量增加均可使气候生产力增加,降水量不足构成作物气候生产力变化的主要限制因子之一;（3）本地区作物生产力还有很大的潜力,针对非作物本身因素提高单产还有可能;（4）未来气候变化情境下,＂暖湿型＂气候对本地区气候生产力增加最有利,＂冷干型＂气候对气候生产力增加最不利。

In order to find out the annual average temperature and precipitation changing condition and the effect on crop climate productivity and the crop climate changing condition of Jidong area under the global climate change background. With meteorological and statistics data from 1977 to 2006 of 11 observation stations of Jidong area, based on the analysis of annual average temperature and precipitation variation, using Thornth waite Memorial model, the author calculated the impact of the climate productivity on annual average temperature and precipitation variation of this area. It showed that： （1） the temperature in this area increased by （0.41-0.75）℃/10a, the volatility of the annual precipitation reduced, but not obviously; （2） In the past 30 years, the climate productivity was in decreasing tendency, but not obviously. The average utilization rate of the climatic productivity was 43.3%, with the increasing tendency; （3） ＂ warm-wet ＂ climate would increase the climatic productivity by 7%-20.8% ; ＂ cold-dry ＂ climate would decrease the climatic productivity by 7.1%-9.7%, based on the future variation of the climate. To conclude： （1） The annual average temperature change in mountain areas, plains and coastal areas showed good consistency, annual precipitation showed the inconsistency; （2） Crop climate productivity increased with the increasing of the annual average temperature and precipitation. Single temperature rising and precipitation increase can make climate productivity increase.The insufficient of precipitation became the major limitation factor rate productivity change. The productivity of this area had great potential; （3） It ’ s possible to increase production for the none-crop factor; （4） In future climate changing condition, ＂ warm-wet ＂ climate would have greater advantage of increasing productivity, ＂ cold-dry ＂ climate would have disadvantage of increasing climate productivity.