长江三角洲夏季持续性高温预报方法的研究

Forecast of Summer Persistent High Temperature in the Yangtze River Delta

采用1999～2008年逐日最高气温观测资料和NCEP逐日再分析资料,统计分析了长江三角洲地区近10a夏季温度的低频周期,揭示了对该地区夏季温度变化产生影响的区域和特征。研究表明,该地区夏季温度的低频周期为10～30d,通过相关分析在42.5°～47.5°N、82.5°～90°E,42.5°～47.5°N、80°～90°E和37.5°～42.5°N、80°～90°E找到三个相关性较好的关键区域,对比相关区域的传播和实际情况的传播发现,这些区域超前10d时对长三角地区夏季温度的变化有指示作用,最后利用这些关键区建立多元线性回归模型,并对2009年长江三角洲地区的夏季温度进行预报,且取得了较好的预报效果。

Using the data of daily highest temperature and the NCEP daily reanalysis data during 1999～2008, the low-frequency cycle of the summer temperature in the Yangtze River Delta in the past 10 years was analyzed. And the critical regions that affected the summer temperature of Yangtze River Delta were revealed. The results show that the low-frequency of summer temperature cycle is 10～30 days. By correlation analysis, three critical regions with well correlation of 42.50～47.5°N、82.5°～90°E,42.5°～47.5°N、80°～90°E and 37.5°～42.5°N、80°～90°Eare found. Basing the compari- son analysis, it is found that the variation of 10 days ahead of critical regions is very important to the trend of the Yangtze River Delta summer temperature. Finally, using the meteorological data of these regions, multiple linear regression models were established to predict successfully the regional summer temperature trend of 2009.