中国木质林产品出口贸易结构风险测算——基于1995年-2009年数据

A Study of Export Structure Risks of China’s Wood Forest Products during the Period 1995-2009

本文基于1995年-2009年数据,选取出口商品结构指数、劳伦斯指数、出口产品反应度、出口产品分散度、产业内贸易指数、出口市场匹配性指数、出口市场反应度、出口市场分散度,构建中国木质林产品出口贸易结构评价指标体系,用功效系数法和主成分分析法测算综合功效系数,分析结果表明,出口结构风险加大趋势明显,2009年出口贸易结构处于高度风险状态,进而从出口商品结构、出口市场结构、出口模式结构三方面提出了出口结构优化的对策。

The export of China’s wood forest products is highly reliant on labor-intensive products, such as wooden furniture, and concentrates in a small market. This situation would lead to trade frictions such as anti-dumping and technical barriers to trade. At the same time, the forest products processing industry is facing the threat of resource security because of its residual trade characteristics. Due to the financial crisis, labor-intensive and capital and technology-intensive exports of wood forest products decreased greatly in 2009. In the current situation, investigating the risk of the export trade structure and proposing the countermeasures to optimize the export structure are of important practical significance. Based on data during the period 1995-2009, we constructed an evaluation index system of the export structure of China’s wood forest products, including export commodities structure index, Lawrence index, reaction index of export products, dispersion index of export products, intra-industry trade index, matching index of export markets, reaction index of export market, and dispersion index of export market. We used the efficiency coefficient method and principal component analysis method to estimate comprehensive efficacy coefficient. Results show that the trend of the risk of the export structure was clearly increasing and the structure of export trade in 2009 was in a high risk state. We proposed strategies that would improve the export structure from three areas, including the structure of export commodities, export market structure, and export patterns structure. Specific measures were as follows： we should reduce the risk of the highly concentrated import market of resource-intensive wood forest products in order to provide resources support for the optimization of the export structure. We should increase the export proportion of the technology-intensive wood forest product, improve the added value of export products, and avoid a large number of middle and low exports of cheap products which will lead to a chain of anti-dumping. We should reduce the concentration of export commodities, increase the responsiveness of export commodities, and enhance the match between our export and international demand. We should improve the level of intra-industry of labor-intensive and capital and technology-intensive wood forest products. Resource-intensive wood forest products continue to be a mainly intra-industry trade, so that inter-industry trade and intra-industry trade will form a benign complementary relationship. We should enhance the match between our export and import markets, avoid too much focus on export markets, consolidate the traditional export market, and actively explore new markets