农地流转市场发育对农民养老保障模式选择的影响分析——基于有序Probit模型的估计

Analysis of Influence of Farmland Transfer Market Development on Selection of Old-age Security: Based on Ordered Probit Model Estimation

农地流转市场的发展,有利于市场机制配置土地资源,但由于土地生产、社会保障功能的双重作用,农地流转市场的发展必然会对农民养老保障方式选择产生重要影响。本文利用农户调查问卷,在测算农地市场发育程度的基础上,运用有序Probit模型实证分析了农地流转市场发育对农民养老保障模式选择的影响程度。实证分析结果表明:在影响农民养老保障模式选择的因素中,年龄、婚姻状况、文化程度、家庭劳动力数量、是否有儿子、农地流转市场发育程度、农地流转类型等都有着显著影响,并且农地流转市场发育程度每提高一个单位,农民愿意选择社会养老保障方式的概率就增加38.2%;而性别、外出务工经历、子女数量、承包土地面积和对社会养老认知程度则对养老保障模式选择没有显著影响。在此基础上,得出相应的政策启示。

The development of farmland transfer market is beneficial to the market allocation of land resource, however, because of the dual function of farmland resource, the development of farmland transfer market necessarily affect the mode of old-age security for farmers. With the development of farmland transfer market, the security function of farmland is gradually infirm because of change of policy environment and development of market economy, and represent the multiplicity of avail for farmers on the macro-environment, this change affect the intrinsic old-security system, gradually form the coexist condition of family old-security, self old-security and social old-security. So this paper bring forward the following hypothesis： the higher the degree of farmland transfer market, the farmers are more inclined to choose the social old-security, and there is correlativity between the development of farmland transfer market and the mode of old-security. Based on the measurement of farmland transfer market development and investigation questionnaire of farmers, this paper employ the ordered probit model to empirically analyze the influence of farmland transfer market development on selection of old-age security. Results show that age, marriage status, education level, amount of labor, whether or not have son, development level of farmland transfer market and type of farmland transfer all have remarkable effect, and the development level of farmland transfer market advance one unit, the probability of selecting the social old-age security will increase 38.2%. However, sexes, experience of migrant work, amount of child, area of farmland and perception of social old-age security have not remarkable effect. Based on above conclusions, following policy implications are put forward, firstly, perfecting evaluation mechanism of farmland transference price, improving the level of farmland transfer market, increasing the income of farmland transference; secondly, advancing the level of education and professional technology quality, providing technical safeguard for choosing different occupation, realizing the shift of agricultural surplus labor force and accelerating the farmland transference; thirdly, propagandizing the policy of social old-security through diversified channels, building up the recognition of farmer for social old-security, enhancing the consciousness of farmer for participating in social old-security