酒泉地区风电场风电功率预报研究

Studies on Wind Power Forecasting for Wind Farms in Jiuquan District

利用NOAA天气预报模式Weather Research and Forecasting Model（WRD结合统计订正方法对酒泉地区短期风电功率预报进行了预报实验。与实际出力比较24h短期风电功率预报精度较高。并在此基础上利用风电场附近测风塔观测数据通过时间序列发进行了0～4h超短期预报实验，预报结果显示0～2h预报结果有利于运行调度。

Short term wind power forecasts experiments are conducted using the weather forecasting model WRF of NOAA combined with the method of statistical correction for the wind farms in Jiuquan district. Compared with the real output data, it is found that the 24h short term forecast is of high precision. On this basis, the 0-4 h ultra-short-term forecasting test is made in the time series of observations by using the data as actually collected on the wind speed measurement tower near the wind farm, the forecast result suggests that the 0-2 h short term wind power forecasting is much better.