福建省物流业与第三产业经济增长的长、短期关系——基于协整理论和误差修正模型检验

On the Long-term and Short-term Relationship between the Logistics Industry and the Growth of Tertiary Industry in Fujian Province——Based on Cointegration Theory and Error Correction Model

运用协整理论定量研究福建省物流业发展与第三产业经济增长的互动关系,研究结果表明,福建物流业与第三产业经济增长之间存在一种长期稳定的协整关系;同时通过建立误差修正模型,分析其长、短期影响关系。在此基础上,提出完善基础设施等发展物流业的措施。

Based on the cointegration theory in econometric,this paper conducts quantitative analysis on the interaction of the economic growth between logistics industry and the tertiary industry in Fujian Province.Results show that there is a long-term and stable cointegration relationship between them.By building error correction model,this paper analyzes its long-term and short-term influencing relationships.Finally,this paper puts forward some measures to develop logistic industry by improving infrastructure facilities.