摘要
利用1959—2010年资料对江西夏季高温的气候分布概况进行分析,利用1970—2009年常规资料对江西夏季高温期间500 hPa副高特征进行分析,以揭示江西夏季高温与副高的关系。利用2001—2008年资料进行的统计相关分析结果表明,850 hPa和925 hPa气温以及500 hPa高度与日最高气温相关较高,采用统计回归模型建立江西夏季高温客观预报方法,通过实报检验,预报效果良好。
The climatic distribution of summer high temperature was analyzed by using data from 1959 to 2010 in Jiangxi Province.As well as the feature of subtropical high at 500 hPa level during summer was analyzed by utilizing conventional data from 1970 to 2000.According to the results of statistical correlation analysis,it shows that the correlation coefficients present better effects between the temperatures at 850 hPa and 925 hPa,and between geopotential height at 500 hPa and the daily maximum temperature,respectively.The objective prediction method of summer high temperature was established by using statistical regression model which presents better prediction effect.
出处
《气象与减灾研究》
2011年第2期19-25,共7页
Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research
基金
2011年中国气象局关键技术集成与应用项目(编号:CMAGJ2011M29)
关键词
夏季高温
副高特征
客观预报方法
Summer high temperature
Subtropical high feature
Objective prediction method.
