近50年黄河上游径流量与气候变化特征研究

VARIATIONS OF TANGNAIHAI RUNOFF AND PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER REACH OF THE YELLOW RIVER

根据1956—2010年唐乃亥水文站逐月径流量资料和1961—2009年黄河上游兴海、泽库、玛沁、达日、久治、玛多6个代表站的降水量、气温资料,分析了唐乃亥站径流量与黄河上游地区降水和气温的气候变化特征及其关系。结果表明:春、夏、秋、冬季的径流量分别占年径流量的14.9%、42.9%、34.7%、7.5%;唐乃亥站年和四季的径流量主要具有4、6、8和16 a左右的周期;20世纪90年代至2002年,唐乃亥站径流量总体处于偏小阶段,但2003年以后径流量呈上升的趋势;黄河上游年、夏季和秋季降水量1990—2002年为偏小阶段,2003年以后为偏大阶段;1961—2009年黄河上游年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季平均气温的上升趋势分别为0.36、0.23、0.27、0.37和0.60℃(/10 a);近50 a唐乃亥站年、夏季和秋季径流量与黄河上游降水量呈显著的正相关关系,而春季径流量与气温呈显著的负相关关系。

By use of the 1956—2010 monthly Tangnaihai runoffs and 1961—2009 monthly precipitation and temperature data of 6 stations（Xinghai,Zeku,Maqin,Dari,Jiuzhi and Maduo） in the upper reach of the Yellow River,the variations of Tangnaihai runoff and precipitation and temperature in the upper reach of the Yellow River are studied.Results show that Tangnaihai runoffs in spring,summer,autumn and winter account for 14.9%,42.9%,34.7%,and 7.5% of the annual runoff,respectively.The runoffs of annual and four seasons have 4,6,8 and 16 a periodic features.The runoffs are less from 1990 to 2002,and have increasing trends after 2003.The precipitation of annual,summer and autumn is less than the normal from 1990 to 2002,and more than the normal after 2003.The temperature linear tendencies of annual,spring,summer,autumn and winter are 0.36,0.23,0.27,0.37 and 0.60 ℃/（10 a）,respectively.Tangnaihai annual,summer and autumn runoffs relate closely with precipitation in the upper reach of the Yellow River.There is a significant negative relationship between Tangnaihai spring runoff and temperature in the upper reach of the Yellow River.