雁型安全模式与中国周边外交的战略选择

Flying Geese Security Model and China's Strategic Choice in Neighbor Diplomacy

美国奥巴马政府的亚太战略呈现出"雁型安全模式"特点,这是自冷战以来美国亚太战略发展的第三个阶段。在这种模式中,领头雁是美国,第二梯队是美日、美韩同盟,第三梯队是美国与澳大利亚、泰国和菲律宾等盟国的关系,第四梯队是美国与越南、印度尼西亚和印度的关系。第四梯队主要以地区为平台,呈现出网络化发展的趋势,它是美国塑造亚洲地区秩序的最广阔依托。美国"雁型安全模式"最主要的目标在于制衡中国,该战略也适应了地区内的多种安全需求。破解美国的"雁行安全模式"则需要根据中国的安全需求和周边国家安全需求的层次性、阶段性等具体情况来制定。中国沿边省份与邻近国家或地区在经济发展水平上相似,安全需求类似,按人均收入衡量从东到西呈现出阶梯性变化。中国可以把本国相关发展区域作为跨国安全合作的单位,与临近国家进行安全合作,逐步超越美国的"雁行安全模式"。以多个地区为中心的周边外交应是中国未来的一项战略性选择。

This paper argues that United States'Asia security strategy has evolved into the third stage since the Second World War,which can be named as'Flying Geese'security model.The model consists of four parts.The United States is the leading goose,and the second tier is the U.S.-Japan alliance and the U.S.-Korea alliance,followed by the U.S.-Australia alliance,the U.S.-Thailand alliance and the U.S.-Philippines alliance.The last one is the bilateral relationships between U.S.and Vietnam,Indonesia,India.The prominent character of the forth tier is that it takes the form of network arrangement and has become the strategic base for United States.The core aim of the'Flying Geese'security model is to check and balance China.In addition,the United States tries to meet various security needs for this region.China could go beyond the United States'security arrangement based on the different levels and stages of Asia's security demands.In fact,China's border provinces have similar security demands as its adjacent countries,which gradually shifted from the east to the west.Thus,China could arrange its security relationship with neighboring countries based on different security demands.To conclude,China's strategic choice should be centered on different regions.