国际结构的分析与预测：现有方法与实证的反思

Analysis and Prediction of International Structures:A Review of Existing Methodology and Empirical Studies

在国际体系处于无政府状态这一前提下,国际结构的分析和预测是国际关系研究的关键和基础。在回顾和分析了现有的方法和实证成果之后,作者认为,在现有的研究中,常识化分析法和数量化分析法是构成研究国家实力的主要方法。基于这两种方法,学者们一般采用惯性定律的原理对国际结构进行短期预测,但这两种分析方法都不能、也不便于准确地界定国家实力,从而利用惯性定律原理进行的短期预测并不准确。由于没有确定在长时间段里影响大国兴衰的主要因素,这些方法也不能对国际结构的长期发展做出预测。作者认为,通过分析国家实力的某一部分,我们可以对不同国家的整体实力进行较为准确的比较和把握。

The analysis and prediction of international structure constitute the linchpin and basis for international studies given the anarchy of international relations.The paper reviews existing methodology and empirical studies of national power and international structure,in which common sense analysis and quantitative analysis are the two main perspectives on national power analysis.Based on these two kinds of analysis,a number of scholars are trying to do short term prediction on international structure by using the law of inertia.The paper analyzes the problems of these analyses on national power comparison as well as problems of their predictions.Because these analyses didn't decide what factors will shape the rise and fall of great powers,it's impossible for them to do long term predictions on the international structure.