开放条件下我国货币政策有效性的经验分析——基于目标实现与工具选择角度的评价

Empirical Researches on the Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy in the Open Economy

本文利用HP滤波、LSTVAR方法估算我国产出缺口、通胀缺口及货币政策变量的广义脉冲响应函数,以此研究我国货币政策在目标实现和工具选择等方面的有效性。研究结果表明,改革开放以来,我国货币政策的调控经历了"急刹车"、"软着陆"、"防通缩"和"控温降速"等阶段,政策调控缺乏预见性和提前量,政策工具的使用和力度把握不准确,政策有效性不容乐观;开放条件下,我国货币政策工具的混合使用使得政府很难掌握调控力度和节奏,政府以利率作为主要调控手段的做法不明智,应主要借助信贷、货币量调控。随着经验的积累,政策工具选择的侧重点越来越突出,微调特征日益明显,调控效率总体上有显著提升。最后,本文给出相关政策建议。

This paper estimates output gap, inflation gap and generalized impulse response via HP filter and LSTVAR models and analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in objectives achievement and instruments selection. The results show that monetary policy regulations in China lack predictability and initial lead, the use of policy instruments and intensity are not accurate. In open economy, it is irrational for the government to regulate with interest rate as the main means, however, credit and money supply should be used. With the accumulation of experience, the emphasis of policy instrument choice is becoming more and more prominent, finetuning feature is increasingly tions is improved significantly. clear, the efficiency of the whole regulations is improved significantly.