公共投资中的腐败问题与经济增长——基于中国1980～2008年的实证分析

A Empirical Analysis on the Corruption in Public Investment and Economic Growth Based on China from 1980 to 2008

本文利用中国1980～2008年间的数据,建立了一个包含经济增长、公共投资与腐败的联立方程来考察三者之间的关系。结果发现,中国公共投资领域腐败与经济增长之间存在着库兹涅茨曲线效应,在中国改革开放及经济转型早期,公共投资领域腐败会促进经济增长;在经济发展到一定水平后,公共投资领域腐败的负面效应将占据主导地位。本文指出,中国现在的公共投资领域腐败程度已接近拐点水平,腐败必将阻碍经济增长。只有深化体制改革,加大反腐力度,建立健全相关监管制度和法律法规,才能使经济增长进入良性、可持续的发展轨道。

This paper set up a simultaneous-equation model to survey the interdependence of economic growth, public investment and corruption in China, finding there exists the Kuznets curve effect between economic growth and public investment corruption. In the early period of economic transformation of China, public investment cor- ruption can fuel economic growth, while at a definite stage of economic development, the negative effect held sway. This paper also point out that the degree of corruption of China today is close to inflexion, and corruption will go against economic development. The economic could get onto the right track of sound and continuable through deepening structural reform, making greater efforts crack down on corruption, setting up and amplifying relational supervision system amt rules and regulations.