人民币汇率变动对我国制造业的影响——基于投入产出表的分析和测算

The Influence of the Exchange Rate of RMB on the Manufacturing Industry:The Analyses and Measurement Based on the Input-Output Table

本文利用我国制造业2007年的投入产出表和第二次经济普查数据,综合考虑了汇率变动对产品出口和中间品进口的不同影响,估算了所有80个制造行业各自利润率受人民币汇率变动的影响,并模拟了人民币升值不同幅度后的各行业利润率动态变化。结果显示:47个行业会因升值受损,33个行业会因升值获利,升值会对制造业总体带来负面影响,并降低制造业吸纳劳动力能力和研发强度,同时会扩大国有经济在制造业中的优势。

Based on the 2007 input -output table calculates out the influence RMB exchange rate on the China, with regard to both the influence of the import and the 2008 economy census data, this article profit margin of 80 manufacturing industries in of intermediate and the export of final product. This article also emulate industry profit margin under various circumstances. The results shows that 47 industries will hurt from the appreciation of RMB, while 33 will benefits. The appreciation will impose a generally negative influence on manufacturing industries, causing them less labor -absorbing and R＆D - intensive, and SOEs will benefits from the appreciation.