政府间转移支付与省际经济收敛

The Statistical Appraisal on Effects of Inter-governmental Transfers to Interprovincial Economic Convergence in China

本文通过对分税制以来中国省际面板数据的计量分析,检验了不同类型的政府间转移支付对省际经济收敛作用的影响。分析结果显示,转移支付从总体上发挥了缩小区域间经济差距的作用,有助于省际经济收敛,具有正的乘数效应,长期看有利于经济增长。其中财力性转移支付和专项转移支付具有显著均等化作用,而且财力性转移支付明显有利于经济增长,而税收返还倾向于扩大地区经济的差距。检验结果与目前转移支付的结构变化趋势是吻合的。

This paper made econometric analysis on panel data of provincial economy since the reve- nue - sharing system reform in 1994 to reveal the effect of inter - governmental transter on provincial e- conomy convergence. It showed that transfers, which had positive multiplier effect on long - term eco- nomic growth, overall narrowed the disparities among different provinces. Among the said transfers, both financial transfer and special transfer had good equalization effect, although tax rebate has the negative effect, even enlarged regional economic disparities. The most important is that the author found the struc- tural change of transfers matched the result of the analysis.