浙江高等教育与经济发展的协动性分析

Study on the Co-Movement of High Education and Economic Development of Zhejiang Province

本文依据从时间序列变量中分离趋势成分和周期成分的CF滤波方法,对浙江1978-2009年间包括实际GDP、人均GDP、高等教育毛入学率、每万人口大学生、普通高等学校、招生、在校生、毕业生、生均经费等在内的9个时间序列变量进行了消除趋势的处理,进而采用相关度研究和因果检验,对作为普通高等教育基准周期退势后的GDP或人均GDP时间序列与退势后的其他7个时间序列变量之间的共动性和因果关系进行经验统计分析。通过对浙江高等教育与经济发展的波动性和协动性分析,总结出高等教育发展的经验特征。

This paper based on separation of variables from the time series trend component and the periodic component of the CF filter, between 1978-2009, including Zhejiang real GDP, per capita GDP, higher education enrollment rate, college students per million population, colleges and universities, enrollment, students in graduates, student funding, etc.i nine time series to eliminate trend variable treatmeat, and then use the degree of correlation, on a regular basis cycle trending higher after the GDP or per capita GDP time series and ＇after trending the other 7 were among the variables of time series between the dynamic experience of statistical analysis. Higher education and economic development through the volatility and co-movement analysis, summed up the empirical characteristics of Zhejiang higher education cycle and stylized facts.