地方政府竞争、投资冲动和我国宏观经济波动研究

A Study of Local Government Competition,Investment Impulse and China's Macroeconomic Fluctuation

利用国民收入核算公式,采用HP滤波分析方法,得到国民收入恒等式中各变量增长率的波动项,并依此构建了一个计量模型。然后利用各变量在1990-2004年间的分省数据,分析了各省GDP增长率波动的原因。结论表明,在我国的大多数省,投资增长率的波动是引起GDP增长率波动的主要因素。为剔除地域差异的影响,做了分区域的实证分析,其结果依然显示投资波动是各省GDP增长率波动的主要决定因素。进一步的分析表明,地方政府竞争是导致各省投资冲动、进而造成我国宏观经济波动的深层原因。

By making use of the national income calculation formula with the lip filter analysis method, this article obtains the fluctuating items of the growth rate of various variables in the national income identical equation, and constructs an econometric model based on them. Then it uses the data of various variables in each province from 1990 to 2004 to analyze the causes of the GDP growth rate fluctuation in each province. The conclusion indicates that in China＇s most provinces, the fluctuation of investment growth rate is the primary factor giving rise to fluctuation of GDP growth rate. In order to reject the influence of regional difference, this study has made a regional empirical analysis; the results still show that the investment fluctuation is the main determining factor for GDP growth rate fluctuation of various provinces. Further analysis shows that the local government competition is the in-depth reasons to cause the invest impulsion in various provinces, and then brings about China＇ s macroeconomic fluctuations.