地方政府消费支出与经济增长非线性门限关系研究——来自我国省级面板数据的经验证据

Nonlinear Threshold Relationship between Local Government Consumption Expenditure and Economic Growth:Empirical Evidence from Panel Data of Chinese Provinces

以我国31个省（市、自治区）1998~2008年间平衡面板数据为样本,运用面板门限模型,以实际GDP中政府消费支出所占的比重作为衡量指标进行门限测试,对地方政府消费支出与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明存在单一门限效果,其门限值为19.93%,门限值两边影响系数分别为正相关、负相关,并且都显著,即存在一正一负的非线性关系。因此,我国各级政府要合理安排政府消费支出,实现经济健康稳定增长。

The paper studies the relationship between local government consumption expenditure and economic growth by applying threshold panel data model with panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2008.Results shows that there only one single threshold effect exists.When the ratio of government consumption expenditure to GDP is lower than 19.93%,there is positive correlation.However,when the ratio is higher than 19.93%,there is negative correlation,and both are significant.This shows nonlinear relationship exists.Therefore,our country government at all levels should be reasonable arrangement of government consumption expenditure,in order to realize economy healthy and stable growth.