基于Kaya模型的高能耗产业低碳发展研究——以山西省为例

Low-carbon Development of Energy-intensive Industries Based on Kaya Model——Take as Shanxi Province

通过Kaya公式计算并描述了山西省1994~2008年工业中各行业的碳足迹,并界定了高能耗行业。通过分解模型定量分析了山西省1998~2008年高能耗行业碳足迹的影响因素贡献大小,计算结果表明经济增长对二氧化碳排放促进作用最大,技术引进对二氧化碳的抑制作用最大。由此提出山西省急需在提高能源使用效率的同时优化产业结构,以提高对二氧化碳排放的抑制作用的政策建议。

This paper calculated Shanxi industry carbon footprint of the industry by Kaya,and defined the high-energy consumption industries.Analysis of the decomposition model by high energy carbon footprint of the industry factor contribution in quantitative.The results show that the promotion of economic growth on the role of the largest carbon dioxide emissions,technology transfer to the maximum inhibitory effect of carbon dioxide.Then proposed that in the future Shanxi urgent need for increase energy efficiency while optimizing the industrial structure,in order to increase the inhibition in decrease carbon dioxide.