城市规划实施的时空动态评价

Spatio-temporal Evaluation of Urban Planning Implementation

规划实施评价是近年来中国城市规划领域的研究热点。已有研究主要侧重于以整个规划范围为研究对象,在一定时间范围内对比规划实施结果和发展现状的一致性,属于时空静态的针对规划实施结果的评价方法。但城市规划的实施效果在时间维度和空间维度都具有异质性,而且城市扩展同时受到市场力量和政府因素的影响,城市规划作为一种政府主导的制度性因素,并不是制约城市扩展的唯一因素。本文提出了基于Logistic回归和GIS的时空动态的规划实施评价方法,其在考虑实施结果的同时更侧重对规划实施过程的评估,考虑了城市扩展的框架下城市规划对空间控制的实施效果,并以北京市域1958、1973、1982、1992和2004年编制的五版城市总体规划为例进行实证分析。根据规划执行的时间跨度,将1947年至2008年分为5个时间阶段,分析各个阶段城市扩展的驱动因素,识别各版城市规划在不同阶段所起到的城市扩展促进作用。并以2004-2008年为例,以各个区(县)为子区域,探讨2004版总规在中心城市、近郊区和远郊区实施效果的空间变化,识别总规在城市扩展中的空间异质性,并给出相应的政策含义。结果显示,随着时间的推移,建国后北京市城市规划的控制作用呈现出逐渐增强的趋势。远郊区县的规划作用效果明显高于近郊和中心地区。

Urban planning implementation evaluation（UPIE） has attracted great attention from the urban plan-ning profession as well as local governments in recent years.The existing literature mainly focuses on the con-formity approach and does not take careful account into the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the urban plan-ning implementation effectiveness.Moreover,previous studies fail to distinguish the effects of the urban plan-ning from other institutional forces as well as the market forces on urban expansion.Therefore,we introduce a spatio-temporal dynamic approach for UPIE using logistic regression to evaluate the effectiveness of the urban planning on urban expansion.The empirical research is conducted in the Beijing Metropolitan Area（BMA） by the analysis of five versions of the city master plans issued in 1958,1973,1982,1992 and 2004 respectively.Ac-cording to the temporal phases of implementing the plans,five phases are divided from 1947 to 2008 to evaluate the temporal dynamics of urban plans and the effectiveness of other factors.In addition,the effectiveness of the 2004 City Master Plan of the 16 districts of the BMA is estimated respectively to identify the spatial variations of the planning implementation.The results show that the effectiveness of urban planning increases over time,and is significantly stronger in remote areas than in the central city and sub-urban areas.