1982年以来中国旅游业对第三产业的关联带动性分析

Driving and Pulling Simulation of Tourism on the Tertiary Industry in China since 1982

中国旅游业发展对第三产业增长具有强大的辐射作用和波及效应。本文建立了一个新的理论模型和分析框架,采用1982-2008年时间序列数据,利用非平稳时间序列分析方法、Granger因果关系检验法和弹性系数分析法,系统分析了旅游业发展对第三产业增长及各部门的关联带动性。研究发现:①从时间序列数据分析看,旅游业发展与第三产业增长之间存在着长期均衡稳定的关系;入境旅游与第三产业之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系;国内旅游与第三产业存在双向格兰杰因果关系,即旅游业发展对第三产业增长有正向促进作用,其中,入境旅游对第三产业增长的带动性要高于国内旅游。国内旅游与入境旅游具有某种相互推动作用。②从弹性分析看,入境旅游对第三产业及各部门的弹性系数分别为1.090079、1.024949、1.047349、1.110070、1.044185、1.139565和1.177425;国内旅游对第三产及各部门的弹性系数分别为0.789943、0.744285、0.759301、0.806053、0.755764、0.826966和0.855732,入境旅游对第三产业及各部门增长的贡献度高于国内旅游的,这可能与长期重视入境旅游发展的政策有关。

Tourism has a great effect on the growth of the tertiary industry.With a theoretical model and a frame-work for analysis,the paper uses non-stationary time series,Granger causality and elasticity coefficient methods and time series data from 1982 to 2008,and analyzes the linkage relationship between tourism development and the growth of tertiary industry.The results can be obtained as follows.（1） Time-series data shows that there is a long term linkage relationship between them.In addition,a single-direction Granger causality relation is found between inbound tourist and tertiary industry.Domestic tourism and tertiary industry also have Granger causali-ty relations.Tourism development promotes the growth of tertiary industry,and inbound tourism development has greater effect on the tertiary industry than the domestic tourism.Inbound tourism and domestic tourism have certain impetus to each other.（2） The elasticity coefficients of inbound tourism to tertiary industry and the sec-tors of tertiary industry are 1.090079,1.024949,1.047349,1.110070,1.044185,1.139565 and 1.177425 respec-tively,and the elasticity coefficients of domestic tourism to tertiary industry and the sectors of tertiary industry are 0.789943,0.744285,0.759301,0.806053,0.755764,0.826966 and 0.855732 respectively.Inbound tourism development contributes to tertiary industry more than domestic tourism.