我国旅游业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究--基于1985-2009年数据

An Empirical Study on Relationship Between Tourism and Economic Growth of China——A Research Based on Data from 1985 to 2009

本文基于向量自回归模型对我国旅游业发展与经济增长关系进行实证研究。Johansen协整检验表明,我国旅游业与经济增长存在长期均衡稳定关系,经济增长对国内旅游的弹性约为0.21,国际旅游对国内旅游的弹性约为1.18。Granger因果检验表明,存在经济增长到国内旅游、国际旅游到国内旅游的单向因果关系。脉冲响应函数曲线表明,我国旅游业与经济增长之间存在较强的正向交互响应作用。方差分解分析了三个变量每一结构冲击对内生变量变化的贡献度。在此基础上,本文提出了进一步加快我国旅游业发展的相关政策建议。

This paper makes an empirical study on tourism and economic growth of China based on vector auto-regression.Johansen cointegration test indicates that there is a long-term stable cointegration relation among domestic tourism,economic growth and inbound tourism.Through the cointegration model,elasticity of economy growth and inbound tourism to domestic tourism are 0.21 and 1.18 respectively.There are Granger causalities from LNGDP to LNEDT,and LNEIT to LNEDT.Impulse response function analysis shows that there is a stronger positive interaction response among domestic tourism,economic growth and inbound tourism.Finally variance decomposition analyses the contribution of each structure attack to endogenous variables.Based on the empirical study,several suggestions are raised to quicken tourism development of China.