中国-东盟自由贸易区投资效应研究

Study of FDI Effects of CAFTA

有关静态效应的研究利用1995—2006年的有关数据对投资效应做了定量检验和实证分析。有关动态效应的研究从规模经济效应、政策预期效应、经济增长效应以及技术扩散效应四方面进行了分析。研究结果表明,在静态效应中,市场的开放与扩大会促进整个区域对外资的吸引力,而对双方相互投资的增加并不明显,双方在吸引区外投资方面也不存在竞争。在动态效应中,规模经济、政策预期、经济增长三方面的效应总体就CAFTA吸引外资而言是有利因素,但需要在长时间才能显现出来,而技术扩散效应并不明显。

To study the static FDI effect of CAFFA, the paper does an empirical study using the improved Framework of FDI Effects of CAFTA and FDI data of China and ASEAN during the period 1995-2006. To study the dynamic FDI effect, the paper analyses the investment effects of CAFTA mainly from four perspectives： economies of scale effect, policy expectation effect, economic growth effect and diffusion of technology effect. The conclusion shows that： as to static FDI effect, opening and expansion of the market will make CAFFA more attractive in attracting FDI. However, CAFIA will not improve mutual investment between China and ASEAN greatly and there is no competition in attracting investment from outside between the two sides; as to dynamic FDI effect, except the diffusion of technology effect, the economies of scale effect, policy expectation effect and economic growth effect increase CAFTA＇s attraction of FDI.