中国货币政策工具选择研究

Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in China

本文在"普勒规则"研究的基础上进行适当扩展,对我国货币政策工具选择问题展开研究。通过研究本文发现:第一,货币政策工具的选择,与经济体所承受的冲击主要来自商品需求层面还是货币需求层面、货币需求主要来自商品市场还是货币市场以及总需求相对名义利率水平的弹性系数相关,而与社会福利损失函数中通货膨胀的厌恶系数、商品市场供给层面的诸变量(包括商品市场供给层面的冲击、商品供给曲线的斜率等)无关;第二,当经济体的所受冲击主要来自商品需求层面、市场货币需求主要来自商品市场、且货币政策对总需求的调节作用效果较小时,则货币当局采用数量型货币政策工具更有利于维护公众的社会福利;反之,则价格型货币政策操作更有利于维护公众的社会福利。

This paper studies the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in China based on the extension of the Poole Rule.According to our research,the optimal monetary policy instrument is connected with the facts whether the shocks on economies mainly come from commodity demand or money demand,whether the money demand mainly comes from the commodity markets or money markets,and the relatively elastic coefficient of aggregate demand to nominal interest rates,having nothing to do with the inflation aversion coefficient of social welfare function and the various dimensions of commodity market supply variables(Including the supply shocks of commodity market,the slope of the aggregate supply,etc.).Quantitative instruments could be superior in maintaining social welfare when the economy is exposed to shocks mainly from commodity demand,money demand mainly from commodity markets and when the effects of interest rate policy on aggregate demand is weak;on the contrary,interest rate policy instrument should be employed.