美国政府债务长期可持续性分析——基于一般均衡条件下的代际预算约束模型

Analysis on the Sustainability of the U.S. Public Debt

美国政府负债可持续性对全球金融市场具有举足轻重的影响,对其进行评估具有重要的现实意义。通过建立基于一般均衡条件下的代际预算约束模型,本文得出美国政府债务能够持续的结论。同时,本文也指出,尽管历史检验表明美国公共债务的可持续性较好,未来依然面临一系列重大挑战。

It is meaningful to evaluate tbe sustamability of the U.S. public debt for its important influence on the global financial markets. Based on the Intertemporal Budget Constraint model under general equilibrium, the paper examines the sustainability of the U.S. public debt and finds substantial positive evidences. The sustainability of the U.S. public debt still encounters lots of serious challenges although it has excellent historical performance.