新城区居民出行生成和分布预测模型研究

Model Study of Trip Generation & Distribution Forecasting for New Urban Districts

对于新建城市（ 区） ，传统的四阶段交通需求预测模式难以适应城市总规阶段交通规划的需要，因为出行生成和分布预测阶段所必需的条件无法满足．在吸取国内相关城市经验的基础上，基于居民出行发生、出行吸引及出行分布的内在规律，提出一种面向新城区的简捷实用的预测模型框架．

For new urban districts, the traditional 4 phase transportation demand forecasting model can not meet the need of the master planning due to the lack of the trip generation & distribution phase data. A feasible simplified forecasting model is proposed refering to the experiences of some new urban districts in our country and based on the inherent law of trip generation,trip attraction and trip distribution.