福岛核危机后日本新能源格局的转变及其影响与启示

Changes in Japan′s New Energy Mix after Nuclear Crisis,Their Effects and Lessons

日本新能源的发展趋势会对全球的能源变革产生巨大作用。从第一次石油危机至今,日本的新能源无论是总量还是在能源结构中所占的份额都有了质的飞跃,这不仅是因为新能源的技术和设备有了长足进步,更重要的是来自日本政府能源政策的支持,但2011年的福岛核危机将彻底改变日本的能源格局。日本政府宣布将中止核电发展计划,可再生能源将成为下一步能源发展战略的核心。然而日本的规模化可再生能源过程也面临着如何弥补核电站退役后的电力缺口、国土面积狭小、电网网架薄弱以及因电价过高导致的巨额补贴费用等诸多困难。与此同时也给日本带来了新的发展机遇,可再生能源将成为日本经济新的增长点。日本核危机使全球核能遭遇低潮期,而可再生能源将迎来新的发展机遇,这有可能催生第三次产业革命。同时也认识到,能源来源的过于单一化使得能源风险加剧,需要建立健全的、快速的能源应急机制,加大国际间能源合作,突破能源技术壁垒。此次日本核危机促使中国反思自身的核电发展策略。中国具有丰富的可再生能源资源,当前应抓住这一发展机遇,加大产品技术含量,切勿盲目扩大生产规模,同时拓展非主流型可再生能源生产设备市场。政府要把握整体布局,避免出现区域性生产"过度"。

The trend in new energy development in Japan will have a significant influence on global energy system reform.Since the first oil crisis,Japan′s new energy development has experienced a qualitative leap in terms of both the total quantity and the share of new energy in the country′s energy mix.This is a result of not only the significant advancement of Japan′s new energy technology and equipment but,more importantly,also the policy support from the Japanese government.However,the Fukushima nuclear crisis in 2011 will thoroughly change Japan′s energy supply picture.The Japanese government has announced the termination of nuclear power development plans and renewable energy sources will be the core of Japan′s future energy development strategy.To commercialize renewable energy,however,Japan will face a series of challenges such as power shortage resulting from the shutdown of nuclear power plants,small land area,weak grid racks and large amounts of subsidies caused by high electricity prices.At the same time,Japan is also facing a new development opportunity-renewable energy will become a new growth spot for the Japanese economy.Japan′s nuclear crisis has sent global nuclear power construction into its low ebb.Renewable energy will embrace a new development opportunity and this may midwife a third industrial revolution.As can be learned from Japan′s nuclear crisis,undiversified energy sources will increase the risk of an energy crunch,a robust and fast energy emergency response system is necessary and international energy cooperation should be strengthened to break energy technology barriers.Japan′s nuclear crisis has prompted China to reconsider its nuclear power development strategy.China has significant renewable energy resources and thus should use this opportunity to increase the content of technology in its products,avoid haphazard production expansion and expand the scale of the non-mainstream renewable energy production equipment market.The government should control the overall distribution of production capacities to prevent regional production surplus.