早年的饥荒经历影响了人们的储蓄行为吗？--对我国居民高储蓄率的一个新解释

Does Famine Experience in Childhood Influence One's Saving Decision-A New Explanation of China's High Household Saving Rate

本文对我国的居民高储蓄率提出了一个新解释,认为我国居民偏爱储蓄的特性很可能与经济起飞之前人们遭受长期物质匮乏的经历有关。作为物质匮乏的一种极端形式,我国1959—1961年大饥荒为检验这一假说提供了一个自然实验。为此,本文使用2002年中国家庭收入项目调查(CHIPs)数据,估计了大饥荒对家庭储蓄行为的长期影响。我们发现,在控制收入等其他因素后,那些早年经历较严重饥荒的户主家庭表现出更高的储蓄倾向:饥荒程度每上升1个点,家庭储蓄率大约提高23%—26%。这说明早年的饥荒经历确实对人们成年后的家庭储蓄倾向具有重要影响。考虑到在早年时期受大饥荒影响的人们,目前正是我国社会中有较高收入的年龄群体和储蓄主体,他们的高储蓄倾向或许是整个社会高储蓄率的重要原因。

This paper attempts to provide a new explanation on the puzzle of extraordinarily high household saving rates in China in recent years. We proposed a new hypothesis that the extreme poverty and shortage of necessities that one experienced at childhood help to foster his saving-consumption habit of austerity. Using the CHIPs data, we testified this hypothesis adopting the Great Famine that happened in 1959--1961 as a natural experiment. Our results show that the famine happened long ago that influences indeed the household＇ s consuming-saving decision, the more serious the famine that the head suffered was, the higher the household saving rate is. Considering the generation who suffered the great famine or ＂famine generation＂ is the main forces that produce and hold wealth, so their high propensity to save help to explain the overall high household saving rates.