中国地市经济增长空间俱乐部趋同研究——兼与省份数据的比较

Study on spatial club convergence of prefectural economic growth: In comparison with provincial data

利用ESDA方法和空间计量模型对中国329个地市经济增长空间俱乐部趋同假说进行检验,并与省份数据进行比较,最后探讨其形成机制。结果表明:地市ESDA分析得到的区域组更加符合俱乐部趋同"组内趋同而组间趋异"的特点;地市经济增长存在两个空间趋同俱乐部,其形成机制是,在经济行为的空间异质性和增长的局域空间溢出效应的共同作用下,产生不均衡空间分布,形成HH与LL两个区域组。在它们内部各地市之间的相互作用程度比区域组之间高,因而诱发了HH组、LL组内出现增长集聚。伴随着增长的持续,HH组、LL组的集聚程度不断提高,两组之间的经济增长差异不断扩大,于是形成两个空间趋同俱乐部。

The paper examines the spatial club convergence hypothesis of economic growth based on 329 Chinese prefectures by using spatial econometrics model and ESDA method.The paper also compares it with provincial data,and finally explores the formation mechanism.The results show that there are more regional groups identified through prefecture ESDA analysis in terms of club characteristics of ＂within group convergence and between groups divergence＂.There are two types of spatial club convergence in prefecture economic growth.The forming mechanism can be stated that uneven spatial distributions emerge under the effects of spatial heterogeneous of economic behaviors and local geographic spatial spillovers of growth,and form two different regional groups named HH and LL.The interaction strength within groups was higher than that between groups（unified force was stronger than separation force）,therefore,it induces growth aggregations within each HH and LL group.With the succession of growth and the degree of aggregations within each HH and LL group increase,the differences of economic growth between the two groups continue to expand and then form two spatial convergence clubs.