农田害鼠种群动态与灭鼠后种群恢复数学模型

THE POPULATION DYNAMICS AND RECOVERY OF RODENT PESTS IN THE AGRICULTURAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM IN SICHUAN

四川盆地连续3年农业生态系统害鼠种群数量的统计分析表明,种群数量在年际间变化不显著(F<F_(0.05)),而年内存在着显著的统计学差异(F>F_(0.05))。种群数量季节消长呈明显的双峰型模式,年周期内出现6月和11月两个数量高峰,两峰之间无显著性差异(t<t_(0.01))。依据农田灭鼠的实际情况,用3月份的数量来预测6月份的种群数量是较好的预测方案。故依据该数据采用数学拟合方法,组建预测6月份数量高峰的短期预测模型。检验表明,具有准确、可靠和实用的特点。灭鼠后的种群恢复符合Logistic增长规律。

The rodent pest density of the agricultural system was recorded for three years in Sichuan , the results showed that the fluctuation of the population density in different years is not significantly different (the analysis of variance, F<F0.05) but different among months within one year (F>F0.05) The seasonal population density had two peaks, which occurred in Jun. and Nov. , and the two peak values are not significant different (t<t0.01) Based on the specific condition of the pest control, we used the amount in Mar. to predict the population density in Jun. . The mathematical model is feasible through test and modification. The recovery of the rodent populations after killing by baits fited well to the Logistic model.