农药残留预测模型的可靠性分析

THE RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL FOR PREDICTING PESTICIDE RESIDUE

基于最小二乘估计理论,提出了农药残留预测模型的可靠性分析问题。依据矩阵的条件数理论,提供了检验预测模型可靠性的方法,运用数据变换的手段,建立了对不可靠预测模型改良的方法。最后以氰戊菊脂在甘蓝上的残留动态预测为例,对农药残留预测模型的可靠性问题进行了实际分析。结果表明:①对农药残留预测模型的可靠性进行分析和检验可避免不可靠预测模型给农药残留预测带来的危害;②对农药残留预测模型建立的可靠性检验方法和改良方法解决了农药残留预测模型的可靠性分析问题。

Reliability analysis of the prediction model of pesticide residue was discussed on the basis of least square method. According to the theory of condition number of matrix, a test method of the reliability was sugested, A method for improvement to the unreliable predicting model was also set up by data transformation. The reliability of the model for predicting residue development of fenvalerate in cabbage was analyzed:(1)The risk stemmed from unreliable prediction model upon pesticide residue prediction could be avoided by model reliability analysis and test; (2)methods for testing and improving the reliability of prediction model set up in this paper is capable of setlling up the problem of reliability analysis of the model for predicting pesticide residue.