贸易超调及其原因的分析

Analysis of Trade Overshooting and its Causes

2008～2009年发生的金融危机,使国际贸易遭受了始料不及的严重打击。对很多国家来说,这次爆发的不仅是金融危机,更是一场贸易危机。其特点主要有强度大、速度快、范围广。一些学者将这种贸易的过度反应称为"贸易超调"。那么贸易在经济衰退期间出现"超调"属于正常现象吗?造成这次贸易超调的主要原因又如何?文章通过对1982年以来的历史数据分析发现,在经济出现衰退期间,贸易出现超调表现是"正常"的"不正常"。而造成此次贸易超调的主要原因是需求下降、垂直化生产模式、融资紧缩、商业模式创新和库存变化等综合影响的结果。

During the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis, international trade had suffered an unexpected hit. For many countries, the crisis is not just a financial crisis, but a trade crisis, which is great in intensity, quick in speed and wide in range. Some scholars call this excessive reaction of trade as ＂trade overshooting＂ . Based on the historical data since 1982, the analysis finds that during the economic recession, trade overshooting is a ＂normal＂ abnormal phenomenon. The 2008 - 2009 trade overshooting has been caused mainly by the various reasons such as falling demand, vertical production mode, financial constraints, business model innovation and inventory change.