1991～2010年热钱流入中国的动因分析

An Empirical Research on the Causes of Hot Money Flowing into China's Mainland from 1991 to 2010

文章综合测算了中国短期资本净流入规模,系统地采用1991～2010年的跨时较长的经验数据,实证检验了国际短期资本流入中国的原因。检验结果表明,国际短期资本流入中国的主要动因首先在于谋取股市和房地产市场的增值收益,其次是为搏取人民币升值的利益;至于国内外"利差"因素的影响本文则没有发现。这个结果及其政策含义值得有关方面借鉴。

Based on the experience data having been updated systematically from 1991 to 2010, this paper estimates the scale and the net value of the short-capital flowing into China's Mainland. It then focuses on the hot money and carefully testifies the factors attracting the international short capital. The results indicate that the first reason for the in-flowed hot money is to aim at the huge profit from the real estate, and the second reason is mainly to aim at the gain from the RMB appreciation. As for the factor of ＂the interest gap＂ , it finds no obvious evidence. All those conclusions and implications are worthwhile for the related authority to pay attention to.