农业自然(巨灾)风险度量的数理方法研究

Study of the mathematical methods on estimation of agriculture natural(catastrophe) risk

农业自然风险度量对农业保险的发展和防灾减灾具有重要的理论和现实意义,而在风险评估中采用何种方法来测度风险又是一个基本问题。文章主要从理论上分析了农业自然(巨灾)风险度量的相关数理方法,包括农业灾害损失的"均值—标准差"度量、农业自然灾害损失分布的拟合方法和极值理论下的巨灾风险度量模型,以期为农业自然(巨灾)风险的定量研究及其保险定价提供科学依据。

The measurement of agriculture natural risk has an important theoretical and practical significance for the development of agriculture insurance and the prevention and mitigation of disasters.However,the selection of the method for estimating the risk in the risk assessment is also a basic problem.This paper focus on theoretical analysis of mathematical methods relating to the estimation of agriculture natural（catastrophe） risk,including the ＂mean-standard deviation＂ measurement of agriculture losses due to disaster,the fitting method for the distribution of agriculture losses due to disaster and the catastrophe risk measurement model based on the extreme value theory,in a hope of providing scientific basis for the quantitative research on agricultural nature（catastrophic） risk and it＇s insurance pricing.