服务业对外开放度对产业结构影响的实证分析——基于广东省1990-2008年数据

The Impact of the Openness in Service Industry on the Industrial Structure in Guangdong Province

为了探讨服务业对外开放度对广东产业结构水平的影响,本文基于1990年-2008年时间序列数据建立VAR模型,从服务业的贸易开放与外资开放两个角度分析了广东服务业的对外开放程度,及其与广东产业结构水平之间的动态关系。结果表明,广东产业结构水平的提升主要依赖于自身的发展,相对而言,服务业的外资开放度的促进作用更灵敏且程度更大,且主要通过作用于第三产业来促进广东整体产业结构水平的提升。同时,广东服务业利用外资效率长期低下。增加服务业的外资开放度的同时,提高服务业的外资利用效率为广东产业结构调整战略的重中之选。

From the perspective of positivism, this paper analyzes the impact of the openness in service industry on the level of industrial structure in Guangdong province. Through a VAR model based on 1990-2008 time series data, and using the impulse response function, this paper analyzes empirically the dynamic relationships between the openness in service industry and the level of industrial structure in Guangdong province. Empirical results show that the openness in service industry has improved obviously the level of industrial structure. The openness of the service industry can be divided into the trade openness and the foreign capital openness, the foreign capital openness plays a more important role than the trade openness in improving its own industrial structure level. The foreign capital openness of service industry promotes Guangdong overall level of industrial structure mainly through direct role in the third industry. Relative to the own growth of the level of industrial structure in Guangdong, the effects of the openness in service industry are limited and significant in shortterm. Therefore, Guangdong should enhance the openness in service industry by taking relative measures to facilitate the promotion of the industrial structure level.