重大国际展会对旅游业境外游客的吸引力研究——以上海世博会为例

Study on the Attraction for Outside Boundary Visitors of the Importomt International Exhibition:A Case Study of Shamghai Expo.

本文重点研究重大国际展会对我国旅游业的影响力。论文以2010上海世博会为例,考察了其对旅游业影响力扩散的主要因素,并利用数学工具对这些因素的变化和分布进行了理论建模与实证研究。文章认为,上海世博会作为全世界的政治、经济和精神文化发展的一个重要影响源,它在时间t内通过一定的空间距离时释放的影响量是距离x和时间t的负指数函数。本文还进一步探讨了上海世博会影响力的结构。研究结果表明,在时间维度,全世界赴上海参观世博会的人数总量在一日内或逐月的分布均是递增的;在空间维度,全世界各国家或地区离上海越近,人均收入越高,偏好程度越强,赴上海观看世博会的人数总量就越大。

This paper focuses on the important international exhibition＇s influence for china＇s tourism industry. It bases on the case of Shanghai Expo. and investigates its main factors about the diffusion of influence force. It makes a few theoretical and experiential studies for the change and distribution of these factors. Our paper think that Shanghai Expo. is an important influence source for the development of worldwide politics, economics and culture and its giving out the influence quantities is a negative exponentical function on time t and space, x. This paper has probed into the influence force＇s structure of Shanghai Expo. further. Research result indicates that the world - wide＇s total number of people of visiting this Expo. within a day or a month is increasing progressively from May of 2010 in a time - dimension and in a space - dimension each country or district is nearer from Shanghai and a country or district＇s people＇s average income is higher and people＇s preference degree about Shanghai Expo. of a country or district is stronger, the total number of people visiting this Expo. is larger.