中国金融系统融资结构与产业结构变动关系的实证分析

Empirical Test of the Relationship between the Change of Finance System Financing Structure and Industrial Structure in China

本文运用VAR模型、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验等计量方法,对中国1981—2010金融系统的融资结构与产业结构变动之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:中国金融系统融资结构与产业结构的变化之间存在长期协整关系;中国金融系统融资结构的变化不是产业结构变动的Granger原因,而产业结构的变动是金融系统融资结构变化的Granger原因,这表明金融系统融资结构与产业结构之间形成了"需求引致",而不是"供给推动"关系。

This paper used VAR model,Cointegration Test,Granger causality test methods to empirically test the relationship between the change of financing structure and industrial structure in china from 1981 to 2010.The empirical study results show that Chinese financing structure and industry structure have long-term cointegration relationship and positive correlation;the change of financing structure is not the Granger reason for the change of industrial structure,but the change of industrial structure is the Granger reason for financing structure.There is a ＂demand-lead＂ but ＂supply-impulse＂ relationship between financing structure and industrial structure.