1391-2006年龙感湖-太白湖流域的人口时间序列及其湖泊沉积响应

Population Time Series of Longgan-Taibai Lake Catchment During 1391-2006 and its Sediment Response

龙感湖、太白湖是经济发达的长江中下游地区重要的浅水湖泊。本研究首先利用历史学的方法复原了黄梅、广济(武穴)和宿松三县1391-2006年的人口时间序列,这是首次将中国历史人口序列的重建深入到县一级。以此为基础,重建了1391-2006年龙感湖-太白湖流域的历史人口序列。在复原方法上,重点吸收了何炳棣等学者关于史载人口数字真实含义变迁等制度研究成果,在把握宏观人口变动大势的基础上,分段复原各时段内的次级波动。龙感湖、太白湖的沉积记录揭示了流域开发强度的变化,这为重建所得人口序列提供了一个客观的检验参照。1391-2006年流域内人口整体呈增长趋势,1634-1644年的明末战乱和1853-1864年的太平天国战争造成了两次重大的人口损失,且后者的程度远甚于前者。硅藻组合、总磷、磁化率、碳屑和孢粉等沉积指标序列清晰地反映了同期人口的波动趋势。这令沉积指标波动得到人文因子解释的同时,也证明了本研究中明代以降县级人口序列的重建方法是可信的。

Longgan Lake and Taibai Lake are two important shallow lakes in the prosperous middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.This research reconstructs the population time series of Huangmei,Guangji（Wuxue）and Susong County during 1391-2006 by taking a historical approach,which for the first time applies this method of reconstruction to the county-scale.As a result,the population time series of Longgan-Taibai Lake catchment during 1391-2006 has been rebuilt.Mainly adopting He Bingdi and other scholars＇ research findings on the changes of real meaning of population number in Chinese history,this paper reconstructs the minor flux in time intervals（divided according to the changes of population system）on the base of major population changes.The sediment cores from Longgan Lake and Taibai Lake reveal the changes of the exploitation degree of the catchment,which provides an objective reference for the reconstructed population series.The population of the catchment generally kept on increasing from 1391 to 2006,but the war during late Ming period（1634-1644）and the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom（1853-1864）led to two significant population losses（the loss of the latter is severer than that of the former）.At the same time,the sediment indicator time series of diatom assemblage,total phosphorus,magnetic susceptibility,charcoal and pollen records clearly reflect the population fluctuations of the corresponding periods.To sum up,the fluctuation of sediment indicator has been interpreted by social factors on the one hand,and on the other hand,this method of constructing population time series at the county-scale during 1391-2006 has been proved credible.