新亚欧大陆桥新疆段暴雨灾变事件的灰色预测

GREY FORECAST OF CATACLYSM RAINSTORM EVENTS ALONG XINJIANG SECTION OF THE NEW EURASIAN CONTINENTAL BRIDGE

通过对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段水害严重区段暴雨灾变事件的分析，确定暴雨灾变事件的临界雨强，并运用灰色灾变预测方法，根据暴雨灾变序列确立相应的灾变年份序列，运用ＧＭ（１，１）模型，分别求出灾变年份序列的ＧＭ（１，１）序号响应式和灾变年份预测式。

Starting from Shilehe and strectching westward to Alataw, Xinjiang section of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge is 1, 448. 75103 km long. Natural disasters caused by rainstorms are serious and occupy 76 % of the total. In this paper, the occurring time of the rainstorm cataclysm events, including those occurred and will occur, is forecasted and verified by using grey cataclysm forecast method. Firstly, the critical values of catastrophic rainstorms are determined by analyzing the serious cataclysm events caused by rainstorms and occurred in 1975, 1979, 1987, 1989, 1992 and 1996 repectively along a typical section of Xinjiang Section of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge. Secondly, the temporal series of rainstorm cataclysm years is correspondingly fixd by using rainstorm cataclysm alignments. Thirdly, the GM (1, 1 ) sequence responding formula of cataclysm year alignments and the prediction formula of cataclysm years are obtained by using GM (1, 1 ) model. By analyzing the data, following conclusions can be obtained: (1) the curve of the relationship between the actual values and the forecasted values shows that the application of GM (1, 1 ) is practicable in forecasting the rainstorm cataclysm events; (2) GM (l, 1 ) model has an extensive application in forecasting cataclysm events; (3 ) It is easy to forecast and has accurate prediction values. Based on which, two serious cataclysm rainstorms occurring in near future are forecasted, i. e. they will, occur around 2003 and 2011 respectively.